I've been watching the covid data very closely and don't understand our elected officials. I don't know what data they are looking at but I believe they are a bit off in the discussion.
Let's start with the facts:
Positive Covid cases are going up. We can agree for the month of June they have gone up, but that's not the full story...
This graph was taken from the July 7, 2020 csv on the state website. The orange line is on the left axis and the blue and grey is on the right. What interesting about the June data vs the say Mar/April data is that the Death rate isn't going up. Is that because the data is lagging or just that people aren't dying? Good Question. Let's double click on this data.
Here you can see that the 60+ years old are seeing an increase but less than Mar/April. Well what about under 60? That's a great question! Start with the left axis. The cases right now for those less than 60 has gone up. But look at the death rates between Mar/April and June. In Mar, the death rate was approx. 5 people per day for every 200 positive cases. In June it has been 1 death per 500 positive cases.
Hmm, that's interesting. So why all of the hysteria? I have no idea. Why are there more cases now than before in this age range? Probably because more are getting testing than in Mar. Wouldn't we expect the positive cases to go up? We have asked the Gov with no response, so I'm hoping this series of blog posts will maybe get a response from the office. What do you all thing?
1 comment:
I love this data/analysis, thanks for doing this work and presenting it in such an easy way to follow. I find it fascinating that perception(i.e. media) seems to be reality and real data is ignored. If perception is fear-based then folks tend to panic without really understanding if there is good reason to panic. One person's media portrayal of an unfortunate experience with COVID-19 blows up into the perception that everyone will contract the disease and go through the same experience. The more momentum or energy given to the panic and the larger number of people that buy into it, the more the government seems to be forced to hop on the illusion bandwagon and the whole thing just explodes unnecessarily. The good news out of this, it does look like they are quickly getting better at identifying and treating the disease and hopefully soon they will have this thing licked!
I hope all is well with you Tim and you are enjoying your new job at NetJets!
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